By Thea McDonald

Picture: Globe License: Public Domain

North Korea Tests Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles Potentially Capable of Reaching Any Location in Continental U.S.

Tensions between North Korea and the United States rose over the last year as the nations’ leaders exchanged threats and snarky comments. As American lawmakers considered options for managing the escalating threat and warned that initiating nuclear action against this rival could lead to grave consequences, North Korea built and tested its arsenal. During 2017, North Korea conducted 16 tests that included a total of 23 missiles. The 23^rd missile, a Hwasong-15 tested near the end of November, reached an altitude of 2,800 miles, the highest altitude any North Korean missile has ever reached. According to CNN, KCNA, North Korea’s state-run news outlet reported that this missile is capable of reaching any location on the U.S. mainland and “meets the goal of the completion of the rocket weaponry system development.” This “successful” test spurred the United Nations Security Council to approve sanctions against the aggressor that limit the amount of refined oil North Korea can import and scrutinize shipping into and out of the country.

ISIS Defeated in Syria and Iraq

ISIS has terrorized parts of the world for years. Finally, in 2017, an international coalition took control of two key ISIS strongholds, Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq. According to U.S. News & World Report, 35,000 ISIS fighters held more than 17,000 square miles in the two states in January of 2017; by December, an estimated 1,000-3,000 fighters occupied a mere 2,000 square miles. This success came after months of fighting in both cities – fighting that killed as many as 11,000 civilians in Mosul alone. While much of the world celebrates the successes against the terrorist group, intelligence officers worldwide remain concerned about future potential ISIS-inspired “lone-wolf” attacks similar to those that have previously occurred in the U.S. and Europe.

Ethnic Cleansing in Myanmar

The Rohingya Crisis worsened this year as more than 6,700 Rohingya were killed, and as many as 2,300 died of starvation and other nonviolent causes, between August and September at the hands of the Myanmar government. This ethnic group has faced severe violence and brutality from their predominantly Buddhist government and its military, which have attempted to disguise the atrocities against the Rohingya as responding to internal terrorist attacks. In fact, the Myanmar government invoked sovereignty, which the New York Times describes as “the single biggest loophole in international laws and norms against atrocities,” as its defense against other world governments organizing action. As government leaders across the world, including U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, called for the Myanmar government and military to halt the atrocities the have led more than 600,000 Rohingya to flee Myanmar for Bangladesh, sovereignty has “prevailed” for the Myanmar government by allowing Myanmar to “act within their borders and protect [its] interests.”

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March 19, 2018

By James Brown

Photo: Kim Jong-Un using the Internet, Creative Common License

“The Kims like their virgins in this world and not the next,” said Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute.  In apparent comparison to the beliefs of certain Islamic Extremists, Bandow made the argument that Kim Jong-un’s brinkmanship stems not from a reckless disregard of potential consequences, but rational self-interest.  At a Cato Institute event titled “How Do You Solve a Problem Like North Korea?”, held on November 6, 2017, most panelists tended to agree. 

What is behind North Korea’s quest for nuclear weapons?

The consensus seemed to be that Kim’s dogged pursuit of nuclear weapons is intended not only to secure a seat at the negotiating table, so to speak, but to ensure his own continued existence.  In illustrating this point, several panelists at the Cato event referenced Kim’s cognizance of the fate of Muammar Gaddafi, the late leader of Libya who agreed to nuclear disarmament in 2003 but was ousted from power and summarily executed by rebel troops after a NATO intervention in 2011. 

Rajan Menon, the Anne and Bernard Spitzer Chair in Political Science at the City College of New York, noted that North Korea’s official statements have justified its nuclear program by pointing to U.S. and NATO actions against both Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein.  Menon thus disagrees with the Trump administration’s current approach to nuclear disarmament, which has included threats of war in the event that peaceable means fail.  “The more that [Un] is threatened with force,” Menon concluded, “the more he will feel justified in pursuit of nuclear weapons.”

Is diplomacy a lost cause?

While most panelists agreed the United States’ past efforts with North Korea have left something to be desired, they also criticized the more aggressive approach of the Trump administration as dangerous or ineffective. 

John Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund and former adviser to Secretary of State John Kerry, insists that negotiation “is the only thing that has ever worked,” and condemned President Trump’s willingness to engage in brinksmanship of his own, particularly regarding his threat to “totally destroy North Korea.” According to Cirincione, Americans have been “living in a world of counterinsurgency and special operations,” which has skewed their perceptions of what a war with North Korea would entail.  The Congressional Research Service recently estimated that North Korean artillery could kill tens of thousands of people in South Korea in the opening hours of a conflict.  Moreover, the Pentagon found that locating and securing all of North Korea’s nuclear weapons would require a full “ground invasion,” the scale of which would be in stark contrast to the high-tech, surgical operations Americans have grown accustomed to in recent years in the fight against ISIS and other terrorist groups. 

However, Bill Richardson, former governor of New Mexico, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and North Korea negotiator, explained that in addition to the Libya intervention in 2011, the United States’ handling of the Iran nuclear deal has eroded its ability to conduct meaningful diplomacy. “Trump’s decertifying of an agreement made just two years ago by an American president,” said Richardson, “undermines our ability to negotiate with North Korea – or anyone else.”  Still, Richardson believes that “people to people” diplomacy is the best course of action, and rejects the notion that “dialogue rewards bad behavior.” The reality, according to Richardson, is that “you gotta talk to bad people.”

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December 20, 2017

By Nico Nalbantian

On September 11^th, 2017, Georgetown University Law Center’s Institute of International Economic Law (IIEL) hosted former Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency David S. Cohen. Cohen discussed Russia, Venezuela and North Korean sanctions in an interview with IIEL Faculty Director Chris Brummer. Described by some in the Obama administration as a “financial Batman”, Cohen focused much of his talk on the evolution of sanctions policy between the Obama and Trump administrations.

The Goal of Sanctions

Cohen began the event by highlighting the purpose of sanctions. Ultimately, sanctions are a diplomatic tool for coercing a country into one of two things: (i) target the behavior of a country and change the targeted behavior, or (ii) disable what that country is doing. The case Cohen shared from the Obama administration was Iran. Iran had been causing global concern due to its alleged nuclear weapons program. The sanctions imposed on Iran were part of a “dual track strategy”. Should Iran continue down its path of nuclear armament, then sanctions would be ratcheted up and cut more deeply into the Iranian economy. Alternatively, should Iran be willing to negotiate and step-away from its nuclear program, then sanctions would be lifted and Iran could “return to the fold” of the international marketplace.

Cohen’s dual track analogy contrasts a common misunderstanding of how sanctions should be used. Sanctions are effective because they apply pressure on a country while simultaneously offering an opportunity to relieve that pressure. Sanctions applied on a country simply for the sake of harm produce no results beyond the harm itself caused to the target country and the host country for bearing the economic cost of the sanction. Another example of an appropriate use of sanctions are, at least initially, the sanctions imposed by the United States and the EU against Russia. The sanctions on Russia are in place to encourage Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. Like Iran, should Russia continue illegal aggression against Ukraine sanctions should be increased and cut deeper into the Russian economy. Alternatively, should Russia begin talks and withdrawal from Ukraine, then the sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and the EU should be lifted.

Trump Administration Complications

Having set out the theoretical underpinnings of the Trump administration, Cohen explored how the new administration has evolved its sanctions policy and some of their challenges going forward. The first digression is the disagreement between Congress and the White House over Russia sanctions. Of course, Congress has an important role in the sanctions process, but Congress’s moves were far more prescriptive than in the past. Previously, Congress would defer to the President or the Treasury Secretary on the lifting and imposition of sanctions to complement the executive’s diplomatic efforts. With the Russia sanctions legislation, some sanctions have been effectively locked into place in such a manner that it is no longer an effective tool at the disposal of the administration. Cohen conceded that Congress had legitimate concerns over the White House’s commitment on punishing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. However, time will tell if sanctions will lose the flexibility and nimbleness that makes them such an effective foreign policy tool.

The Trump administration’s most important challenge will be establishing a North Korean sanctions regime. Cohen argued that it was possible for the United States, in cooperation with China, to establish an effective sanctions regime on North Korea. North Korea needs the ability to sell its arms, labor, and textiles to earn foreign currency around the world. All those transactions are vulnerable to the secondary sanctions that were effective against Iran. Secondary sanctions would be cutting off any company that does business with North Korea from the US economy. The challenge for the Trump administration is, unlike Iran, North Korea does over 90% of its trade with China. Therefore, any effective sanctions against China North Korea would likely rely on effective communication with the Chinese. Unfortunately, the Trump administration’s seeming desire to reimpose sanctions on Iran due simply to the desire to punish them does not bode well for an effective and dynamic sanctions policy.

Should readers wish to view David Cohen’s talk in full, an online recording can be found here.

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September 17, 2017

By April Kent

In February, the United States presented a draft resolution negotiated with China to the U.N. Security Council to impose restrictions aimed at frustrating North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. The proposed sanctions have been widely hailed as the toughest U.N. sanctions regime in over two decades, with one U.S. official quoted as saying, “this resolution will be felt, it will have an impact... The DPRK (North Korea) has never been subject to the kind of pressure that is in the resolution.” However, others have expressed doubts. The New York Times reported that analysts in South Korea and China are less than certain that sanctions will be sufficient to force North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons. The Wall Street Journal also recently published an article elaborating on the loopholes and oversights that will allow China to continue playing “a double game of rhetorically deploring North Korea’s nuclear program while propping it up in practice.” Whether the sanctions will have their intended effect remains to be seen.

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April 27, 2016

By April Kent

Namibia is currently facing possible punishment for violating mandatory United Nations sanctions imposed on North Korea. On February 29, Vice News reported that a munitions plant was being built by North Korea in Namibia, citing a UN report. Namibia’s Minister of Defense Penda ya Ndakolo initially denied its existence to local Namibian newspaper, Die Republikein. However, the government has now confirmed that North Korea constructed the plant, but insists the project is not in violation of past United Nations Security Council sanctions. The UN has begun an investigation to determine when the plant was built, with the cooperation of the Namibian government.

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April 25, 2016

By William Stroupe

Investigations of the vast trove of leaked documents from Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca have revealed widespread assistance in clients’ efforts to evade sanctions. The firm registers offshore corporations under its own name, keeping owners’ names out of publicly reported information. After the imposition of sanctions, the firm continued to work for entities and individuals with ties to some of the world’s most oppressive regimes. In addition to sanctioned entities in Zimbabwe and Iran, this includes a corporation owned by North Korean officials under U.S. sanctions for activities related to nuclear proliferation, six owned by embattled Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad’s billionaire cousin, and another owned by a close friend of Vladimir Putin and thought to be operated on the Russian autocrat’s behalf.  Investigation into the cache of over 11.5 million documents is ongoing.

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April 12, 2016

By William Stroupe

Despite Chinese claims that it is rigorously enforcing recently intensified sanctions on North Korea, military goods still make it into North Korea. The North Korean military owns several entities in China that masquerade as legitimate trading enterprises. These entities disguise military hardware imported to China by private enterprises as innocuous goods not subject to international sanctions. The supplies then flow through customs houses where false papers, or occasionally blank papers (which send a clear message that the goods are to be permitted through), are provided. When necessary, Chinese border officials are easily bribed. Though China has stepped up its border checks and inspections, this means the actual flow of military and dual-use continues unabated.

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April 11, 2016

By William Stroupe

The United Nations Security Council has adopted its strongest ever sanctions against North Korea in the wake of a thinly-veiled banned missile test and the country’s recent claim to have developed a hydrogen bomb. Whereas previous sanctions have only targeted activities linked to nuclear proliferation, the tightened regime does not. The sanctions mandate inspection of all cargo entering and exiting the country in addition to banning sales of luxury goods and aviation fuel to North Korea. The regime also bans mineral and metal exports from North Korea, one of the country’s few reliable means of obtaining the hard currency it needs to sustain its dilapidated economy. Though facially exceptionally stringent, their effectiveness will rely on China’s willingness to rigorously enforce the new sanctions. China is North Korea’s biggest trading partner and source of economic assistance. Though China supported the sanctions in the U.N. Security Council, it is unclear whether it will take determined action in practice.

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March 23, 2016

By Abbie Schepps

North Korea now boasts making nuclear warheads small enough to fit onto ballistic missiles. While skeptics question the miniaturized nuclear warhead’s validity, the international community has decided it is not unreasonable. South Korea has introduced unilateral sanctions. It designated 30 companies with links to the North’s nuclear and missile programs, as well as 38 North Korean nationals and two foreigners. All will be banned from the South Korean financial systems. This is the first time South Korea has targeted people and companies by name, a practice used by the United Nations, the United States, and the European Union. Additionally, in an effort to tighten import and export control, South Korea will deny any ships entry that have been to North Korea in the past 180 days. South Korea’s sanctions overlap with measures imposed by the United States and the United Nations. The sanctions illustrate the international community’s intentions to change North Korea.

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March 18, 2016

By Sarah Akbar

South Korean lawmakers have finally passed the North Korea Human Rights Act after 11 years, which would help defectors send movies and books into North Korea and will establish an official center to collect and publish records of North Korea’s human rights abuses. The law’s passage marks a dramatic shift from North Korea’s previous emphasis on the “Sunshine Policy”—of economic and aid projects—and towards a more vigilant and aggressive policy. The shift may have something to do with the recent launch of North Korea’s most aggressive nuclear tests and increased sanctions by the EU. The Act is vindication for many defectors who send anti-North Korea leaflets across the border and who have been urging for more monitoring of the Kim regime’s human rights atrocities.

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March 18, 2016

By Olga Symeonoglou

"North Korea - Pyongyang" by stephan  is licensed under CC BY 4.0

On January 5, North Korea announced that it had tested a hydrogen bomb. The claim was met with skepticism because the size of the earthquake produced by the detonation – with a reported magnitude between 4.2 and 5.1 – did not reach the strength that a hydrogen bomb would cause.  

Hydrogen (or thermonuclear) bombs are far more powerful than atomic bombs. Atomic bombs create energy through fission (atoms splitting in half), while hydrogen bombs use the energy released from atomic fission to spark fusion (atoms fusing together). Only the United States, Russia, China, France, and Britain are known to have tested hydrogen bombs. 

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February 29, 2016

By April Kent

The United States Treasury on Friday announced that it has imposed sanctions on four North Koreans, including the ambassador to Myanmar, and a North Korea-owned company based in Egypt, over connections to North Korea’s illicit weapons trade. All have ties to the Korea Mining Development Trading Corp., which U.S. officials have labeled Pyongyang’s “primary arms dealer.” It is hoped that the sanctions would obstruct North Korea’s funding for expansion of nuclear capabilities and weapons of mass destruction. Adam Szubin, the Treasury Under Secretary, stated “North Korea’s continued violation of international law and its commitment to the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction pose a serious threat to the United States and to global peace and security.” Although the U.S. has taken similar actions many times against North Korea, sanctioning an ambassador is unusual, demonstrating a more robust stance by the U.S.

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November 19, 2015

By Jenny Park

In December, the White House blamed North Korea for hacking Sony Pictures (Sony’s confidential information was leaked and the hackers threatened attacks on movie theaters that would play The Interview, a political satire comedy poking fun at Kim Jong-un). Now, the White House has authorized the US Treasury discretionary power to impose sanctions against perpetrators of cyber-attacks on US assets and infrastructure. President Obama declared cyber-attacks as “one of the most serious economic and national security challenges.” The White House stressed that this new power will not target internet free speech and will not replace traditional law enforcement responses to cyber-attacks.

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May 05, 2015

By Jenny Park

Japan extended its sanctions against North Korea for kidnapped Japanese nationals, occurring in the 1970s and '80s, for two more years. Japan cited delayed responses from North Korea regarding unresolved issues involving the kidnapping. North Korea has admitted to kidnapping 13 Japanese nationals, 8 of whom had died while in captivity. One of these victims was Megumi Yokota, who was kidnapped when she was 13. Although North Korea announced that she had killed herself and returned her supposed remains, DNA tests subsequently disputed such claim. Read more at BBC.

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May 04, 2015

By Catherine Kent

Thirty years have now passed since North Korea joined the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1985. As nuclear weapons have come to the forefront, the rhetoric and hostility between North Korea and the United States has been escalating. It seems, however, that neither the U.S., nor North Korea can gain the upper hand.

The U.S. has made its presence known to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), and kept the country on notice that if need be, the U.S. will come to the defense of South Korea. Each year, South Korea hosts joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises. These drills, lasting several weeks, mainly focus on maintaining preparation for a North Korean assault against South Korea. The annual joint exercises do not typically put North Korea in a pleasant mood; in fact, the reaction is generally pretty poor. Last year, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) stated that the U.S. and South Korea would “have to pay a dear price” for the exercises. 

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March 19, 2015

By Ena Cefo

For the first time in 10 years, on October 26th, 2014, North Korean officials unexpectedly met with the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in North Korea, Marzuki Darusman. In his report on the situation of human rights in North Korea released on October 24th, 2014, Mr. Darusman urged the United Nations to ensure accountability for the human rights violations in North Korea by formally referring the situation to the International Criminal Court. Mr. Darusman mentioned the culpability of officials of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) for the “systematic, widespread and gross” human rights violations against its people. Mr. Darusman hoped that the meeting with DPRK officials was a sign of further engagement on human rights, but urged that North Korea must be willing to address the full scale of its human rights problems.

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December 04, 2014

By Jenny Park

When North Korea makes belligerent threats of nuclear annihilation and actually carries out nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches, the world’s response is surprisingly lukewarm. This is an odd phenomenon considering the tougher sanctions against Russia for supporting the separatists in Ukraine, and against Iran for a multitude of transgressions, including continued illicit nuclear activities. 

But North Korea’s violations of international law are quite extensive. To name a few, North Korea developed nuclear weapons after withdrawing from the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and tested them out not only once in 2006, but also in 2009 and in 2012. Mind you, China, the U.S., Japan, Russia, and the two Koreas have engaged in six-party talks from 2003 to 2007 to try to resolve North Korea’s nuclear issue to no avail. Furthermore, the multiple UN sanctions (UNSecurity Council Resolutions 1718, 1874, and 2094) that imposed economic and commercial pressures against North Korea also proved to be ineffective. 

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November 19, 2014

By Courtney Cox

North Korea released a report on its human rights practices last week. The country’s Association for Human Rights Studies purported that citizens enjoy “genuine human rights,” including freedom of religion. According to the report, citizens are not subject to inhumane treatment. In fact, the country boasts having “the world’s most advantageous human rights system.”

North Korea is facing increasing international outrage in reaction to the U.N. Commission of Inquiry’s February report chronicling the country’s widespread human rights violations (many of which may rise to the level of crimes against humanity). The U.N. Commission’s findings included gender inequality, suppression of political and religious expression, as well as rampant incommunicado detention and torture in prison camps. The Wall Street Journal stated that North Korea’s human rights report was an attempt to correct the misunderstandings promulgated by the United Nations.

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September 29, 2014

By Katie Bacharach

Michael Kirby, Chairperson of the Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in North Korea, appealed to the U.N. Security Council to have North Korea referred to the ICC, according to Reuters. 

The U.N. inquiry’s final report determined that North Korean security chiefs, and possibly even Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, should be brought to the court for ordering systematic torture, starvation, and killings “comparable to Nazi-era atrocities.” 

U.S. Ambassador Samantha Power agreed with the inquiry’s recommendation. However, China has suggested that it would shield North Korea from prosecution, telling the Human Rights Council in Geneva last month that the inquiry had mad “unfounded accusations and recommendations ‘divorced from reality’.”

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April 19, 2014

By Julie Inglese

A U.N. panel presented findings this month indicating that potentially hundreds of officers in North Korea have committed crimes against humanity, including: systematic torture, starvation, and killing of its people.

North Korea completely rejected the findings, saying they were based on “lies and fabrications deliberately cooked up by hostile forces and riff-raffs.”

The North’s formal rejection of the report came after the U.N. human rights chief urged world powers to refer the state to the International Criminal Court. However, Eurasia Review explains that  this referral is extremely unlikely because of “China’s probable veto of any such move in the UN Security Council.”

Only time can tell if the report will impact the regime, but defectors who fled the North, including prison camp survivors, expressed skepticism about a resulting change.

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February 27, 2014