By Catherine Kent
Thirty years
have now passed since North Korea joined the international Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1985. As nuclear
weapons have come to the forefront, the rhetoric and hostility between North
Korea and the United States has been escalating. It seems, however, that
neither the U.S., nor North Korea can gain the upper hand.
The U.S. has
made its presence known to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK),
and kept the country on notice that if need be, the U.S. will come to the
defense of South Korea. Each year, South Korea hosts joint U.S.-South Korea
military exercises. These drills, lasting several weeks, mainly focus on
maintaining preparation for a North Korean assault against South Korea. The annual
joint exercises do not typically put North Korea in a pleasant mood; in
fact, the reaction is generally pretty poor. Last year, the Democratic People’s
Republic of Korea (DPRK) stated that the U.S. and South Korea would “have to
pay a dear price” for the exercises.
The reaction to
this year’s drills has been predictably acrimonious. With the drills set to
begin on March 2, North Korea began its protest-rhetoric early on Friday,
February 27. An official KCNA news agency took this quote from the ruling
Workers' Party newspaper: “The DPRK will wage a merciless sacred war
against the U.S. now that the latter has chosen confrontation […] Nuclear
weapons are not a monopoly of the U.S. […] The U.S. is seriously mistaken if it
thinks its mainland is safe”.
Action to stop
the proliferation of nuclear arms in North Korea and the threat they pose to
the United State’s national security and foreign policy has been ongoing since
2000. More recently, in 2008, the President of the United States has issued several
Executive Orders, pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers
Act (IEEPA). Under .E.O. 13466, for instance, those who violate the E.O.’s face
criminal fines up to $1,000,000 and imprisonment up to 20 years. Additionally, the
Office of Foreign Assets Control has issued the sanctions against North Korea
in 2010.
The current
U.S. sanctions against North Korea include prohibitions on (1) transferring,
paying, exporting, withdrawing, or otherwise dealing in property and interest
in property in North Korea or a North Korean national’s on the black list; (2)
registering vessels in North Korea or flying the North Korean flag on a vessel;
(3) importing goods, services, and technology from North Korea without a
license from OFAC; (4) exporting goods to North Korean parties whose property
and interest are blocked under E.O. 13551.
In the midst of
all these sanctions, a new research project reports that North Korea’s nuclear
stockpile could grow from 10-16 nuclear weapons at the end of 2014 to 100
by 2020. The project, the North Korea
Nuclear Futures Project is a joint collaboration between Johns Hopkins
University School of Advanced International Studies and National Defense
University. The project predicted three possible scenarios for North Korea’s
nuclear program’s growth over the next five years. Under the best-case
scenario, North Korea is expected to nearly double its stockpile from 10 to 20
nuclear weapons. The worst-case scenario imagines that with an increased commitment
to the nuclear and missile programs, North Korea would possess 100 nuclear
weapons and 20-30 ICBMs by 2020.
David Albright
and Joel Wit announced the project's
findings to the press on Tuesday, February 24. Wit remarked that the U.S.
is failing in its attempt to encourage North Korea to back down from the
nuclear ledge. While the U.S.’s sanctions are an attempt force North Korea on a
choice between economic prosperity and nuclear weapons, as Wit said, “[T]hey’re
not having to choose. They’re doing both”. North Korea has been forging relationships
with Russia, China, and the ASEAN states and winning them over as a regional
federation of countries that accept North Korea as a nuclear state. Chinese
companies have been North Korea’s steady smuggler-supplier of Western technologies
needed to maintain a nuclear program and its development.
In response to
North Korea’s persistence and heightened hostility, the U.S. has decided to go
with the tried (and tired) method of more sanctions. The House Committee on
Foreign Affairs approved the North
Korea Sanctions Enforcement Act, intended to really crack down (using more
sanctions) on North Korea and any countries working to assist in bolstering
North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, particularly China. There is also a bill
planned in the Senate, which has yet to be introduced.
Rather than
relying on a naive hope that these sanctions will somehow be different, the
U.S. should consider a strategy of engaging, rather than just isolating North
Korea. The focus should be on rebuilding some kind of a normal relationship
with North Korea, starting with a treaty with Pyongyang. Any additional negotiations
should be aimed directly at China, as a key player with significant leverage in
North Korea.
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