By Nicholas Nalbantian
Pre-Brexit
Prior
to the decision to leave the European Union, David Cameron, then the Prime
Minister of the United Kingdom, attempted something new in EU politics. In January 2013
Cameron promised to negotiate a “new settlement” with the EU, including winning
an array of concessions from Brussels in order to convince the British people
to remain in a reformed EU. On February 20, 2016, Cameron finalized a deal with
the (now dubbed) EU-27 who, even at the time, seemed incredulous of the idea
that a state would leave the EU. Nonetheless, Cameron managed to secure some changes
for the UK, chiefly that bloc workers will be limited to “in-work” social
welfare benefits for four years and a pledge that the UK will not be
responsible for the maintenance of the Euro, the European common currency. Of
existential significance, Cameron also got a pledge that
the UK would be excluded from any commitment “to an ever closer union” and the
introduction of a “red-card” mechanism to block EU Commission proposals that
were not to Britain’s liking, provided 55% of national parliaments agree.
With
the UK’s vote to leave, these concessions by the EU-27 will not be implemented.
However, as anti-EU sentiment grows in Europe, it will be up to Brussels to
consider whether Brexit could have been avoided if Cameron’s moves for reform
had been taken more seriously. Although any future EU reform may be a forlorn
hope as Guy Verhofstadt’s (leader of the Liberal MEPs) decision to make a deal
with Antonio Tajani’s center-right European People’s Party (EPP), which won Tajani
the presidency of the European Parliament. The EPP was the same political party
in power from 2009 – 2011 during the fallout of the Great Recession. The EPP
now controls all three leadership roles in the EU with Jean-Claude Juncker as
President of the European Commission and Donald Tusk as President of the
European Council. The text of the agreement between the EPP and the Liberals,
both pro-EU parties, reads like a diagnosis that the remedy for the EU’s woes
is “more Europe.” The move is also seen as a rebuke of Eurosceptics and
Socialist parties who had hoped for greater dialogue on systemic EU reform.
Brexit
On
June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum to decide whether or not
the country should remain a part of the European Union. In the early hours of
the morning on June 24 2016, the results emerged as a 52% to 48% victory for
the Leave campaign, Prime Minister David Cameron would resign later that same
day. The 71.8% turnout for the referendum vote was the highest turnout
experienced in a British election since 1992. In the wake of David Cameron’s resignation, Theresa
May, the former Home Secretary and long-time Member of Parliament, became the
second woman to serve as Prime Minister on July 13,
2016.
The
referendum to leave the European Union would be the first time that a nation
state has voted to leave the European Union, thereby reducing its membership to
27. While Greenland voted to leave in 1985, it also remained a member of the
Kingdom of Denmark so its relations with the EU are more akin to European
overseas territories, like French Polynesia, than a true withdrawal. With the
EU often described as the pinnacle of multinational integration, the
significance of the UK’s decision to quit the bloc cannot be overstated.
Un-United Kingdom
An
almost immediate consequence of the Brexit vote, aside the falling value of the
pound, was
the threat to the relationship of the UK states. On October 2, 2016, the
Belfast High Court heard legal challenges whether the UK Government needs the
consent of the Northern Irish Assembly to leave the EU, it was
rejected. In a similar vein, Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland,
announces that a second Scottish Independence referendum is likely by 2020, if not
earlier. Perhaps
most damaging of all is the threat to
the Good Friday Agreement, with the Brexit vote splitting along sectarian
lines, with 85% of Catholics voting remain, and the unsettled issue of the open
border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
Spilling into 2017
With little
consideration for “Years in Review,” the events of Brexit continued into this
year and it would be inaccurate not to mention some of the more recent
developments. The UK High Court, one of the Senior Courts of England and Wales,
rule in November
that the May government could not invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty
without Parliament’s consent. The UK Supreme Court confirmed
that decision in January. Despite some difficulties with the House of Lords, Parliament has now authorized Prime Minister May to invoke Article 50. As of
printing, May is expected to trigger Article 50 on Wednesday, 29 March, but
with elections soon European officials suggest formal talks won’t start until June.
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